The Three-Body Problem

Historically the three-body problem was a very prominent (and difficult) challenge in physics: calculating the paths taken by three bodies interacting with each other gravitationally. Since each body is affecting the other two and those effects in turn influence how the other two bodies interact with each other and the first body, it's tricky.

But I'm using the phrase a little differently here. A week and a half ago I brought up the gubernatorial race in Maine, effectively a three-way race. And I posted this graph showing the shifting dynamics of the race in its closing days:



By the very end of the race the independent candidate, Eliot Cutler, had surged into a very close third behind Democrat Libby Mitchell and was clearly on the upswing. How did things turn out on election day? As Wiki attests:



That's right, it almost turned into the biggest upset of this gubernatorial election cycle. For most of election night, Cutler was leading as the election returns trickled in. So what happened?

My best guess is that the polls themselves altered the outcome of the race. Regardless of what triggered Cutler's momentum in the closing weeks, it was clear that he had it. It was also clear the Libby Mitchell was not going to be the next governor of Maine. And the fact is that Cutler, despite the Maine Democratic Party's idiotic decision to run negative ads against him in the final days of the campaign, was acceptable to most of the Democrats and other center-and-left-leaning residents of Maine. I mentioned his background in the other post so I won't repeat it here.

So it stands to reason that the average Democrat/non-right-leaning voter saw Libby Mitchell treading water--or even sinking--as the campaign wrapped up and, mortified by the thought of Tea Partier Paul LePage becoming governor, decided to vote strategically: withdraw support from Mitchell and throw it to Cutler, who was trending upwards. That's the kind of swing that takes a guy from third place to (almost) first. There are undoubtedly also voters like me--people who didn't intend to vote but impulsively decided on election day to take advantage of Maine's same day registration laws and turn out to vote for Cutler (who was my first choice even before I decided to vote).

In the end, the candidate formerly running 2nd in the polls--Democrat Mitchell--didn't finish first or second in any county in the state. That suggests those late interactions between her, Cutler, and certain voters' revulsion at the thought of a LePage victory had a significant impact on the race. In the end LePage eked out a victory, a victory I suspect wouldn't have happened if the remaining Mitchell voters had known how close Cutler would run with him. But dem's da breaks.

As for what the state can look forward to: ... Though Massachusetts gets credit for being reform-minded, Maine actually enacted comprehensive health reform in 2003. The state created the Dirigo Health program to expand coverage to the uninsured. And while the program has faced its ups and downs and is certainly in need of some work, Maine now has the fourth-lowest uninsurance rate in the country. But if Republicans are good for one thing, it's unmaking that which has been made.

Tarren Bragdon, a co-chairman of Mr. LePage’s transition team, said the new governor would probably also scale back the social safety net to focus on the “truly needy” in programs like food stamps, Medicaid and cash assistance, and look to remake the state’s health system.

That system, known as “Dirigo,” (Maine’s motto, which means “I lead“ in Latin), was enacted several years ago in an effort to provide universal health care coverage for residents.

“Dirigo,“ Mr. Bragdon said, “will be Diri-gone.”

And all because 38% of voters wanted this guy to be governor.