Saturday, August 11, 2012

Well, shit, it wasn't Portman

I'm genuinely surprised. Portman was the obvious "don't rock the boat" pick with a potential marginal upside in Ohio. But that choice is appropriate for a campaign that's more or less in a dead heat with its opponent.

Apparently Romney concluded that thus far he's been on track to lose. Granted, he hasn't had a good week since the first half of June, he's the first candidate in recent memory to have a higher unfavorable rating than favorable, and three polls that came out at the end of last week showed him down between 7 and 9 points.

But I still wasn't expecting a risky choice like Paul Ryan, the GOP Budget Chairman best known for his draconian budget that would replace Medicare with a voucher for private health insurance. This strikes me a sign of mild panic (or at least resignation) in the Romney camp. Which surprises me.

Sorry Rob, maybe next time.
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2 comments:

  1. trunkelyAugust 11, 2012 at 1:04 PM

    I am incredibly shocked as well. Something I read this morning really stuck with me. That he's a very high-profile member of an extraordinarily unfavorable institution: Congress.

    Thoughts on how that might effect favorability?

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  2. stanekAugust 11, 2012 at 2:04 PM

    It's possible that Ryan's youth and seemingly earnest demeanor (and past plaudits from pundits about his "bravery") will win over the public.

    But despite his youth (he's 42), he's not new to the scene. He's been in Congress since he was 28, meaning he was there throughout the Bush years, voting for every expensive or fiscally irresponsible package they put in front of him. And like you said, he's in the leadership (one of its most prominent members, in fact) of the GOP-controlled House, one of the least popular institutions in American history.

    But he's got more baggage than that. As I mentioned last year, the Republicans voted to end Medicare--a plan that's synonymous with Ryan's name because he developed, introduced, and pushed it. That plan is now going to be front and center in the campaign.

    I'm not sure this pick makes Romney look better to anyone outside his base. But I guess we'll see.

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