The same basic story is apparent. Opposition has grown but is now slowed to a near halt. Support reversed its decline sometime in August and has begun an upturn.
And my big point is that this is essentially the picture you see in all these different trend estimates. The details are slightly different. A bump here and a drop there, and the precise estimates of support and opposition differ by as much as 2 points up or down. But the big picture is that opposition ramped up significantly through June or July but has recently slowed or stopped. Support fell less precipitously but has been working back up for a month (despite or perhaps because of the circus coverage in August.) We could pick a chart to fight over the details, but we shouldn't. It is the big picture of public opinion that is important here. Within a couple of points, opinion is evenly divided. The White House has gained a bit of momentum, but will be challenged to lower the opposition numbers, not just raise the support numbers.
Interesting, a recent Quinnipiac poll of the Buckeye State found essentially the same thing as the national numbers:
Turning to the ongoing health-care reform debate, Quinnipiac found 44 percent of Ohio voters back the plan while the same percentage opposes it. The remaining 12 percent didn’t weigh in.
The so-called public option portion of the proposed reforms clinched 57 percent support among Ohio voters, but an even wider margin – 68 percent – said in a separate question that they don’t believe Obama will be able to overhaul health care without adding to the federal budget deficit.
Split right down the middle.
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