Thursday, May 23, 2013

Unskew those premiums!

Six weeks ago when I posted Obamacare: What's in it for you? only a single state had released the rates filed for health insurers who intended to sell in its new marketplace under the law: Vermont. As of today that number has grown to seven states as next year's premiums slowly trickle out.

Earlier this month, House Republicans and conservative media began pushing the notion that premiums in the new marketplaces would be jumping 400% in the new marketplaces next year. That strikes me as slightly odd strategic positioning, as by setting expectations that low smaller premium increases are going to look good by comparison. Was conservative media again setting up the true believers for bitter, inconceivable disappointment (similar to last year, when they pretended that "unskewing" opinion polling revealed that Mitt Romney would coast to an easy electoral victory)?

I'll take away the suspense:

Dems: Early data show premiums falling under Obama health law
Insurers have filed preliminary rates for 2014 in Maryland, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington state. In most cases, rates haven't spiked as a result of the healthcare law. 
Premiums for the cheapest insurance plan in Oregon are expected to fall by an average of 11 percent, and customers in Washington could see a price drop of 21 percent for the cheapest policy, according to the Democratic summary of state rate filings. 
Insurers in Vermont and Rhode Island said rate increases would not be significantly affected by the Affordable Care Act.
But let's drill a little deeper into individual states, as well as the press their rate filing are getting in the media.

Washington:

Premiums drop, coverage expands in Washington's exchange
Despite predictions of rate shocks, most consumers in Washington state will actually see lower premiums and enhanced coverage when they buy insurance through the state's health insurance exchange. 
Washington Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler on Tuesday released rates proposed by insurers, including Premera Blue Cross, Lifewise, Group Health Cooperative, BridgeSpan and Molina Health Care of Washington, for health plans they will sell on the state-run online marketplace, called the Washington Health Plan Finder, reported the Spokesman-Review. 
And those prices don't include federal subsidies available to consumers, so the premiums that consumers will pay actually will be less than the rates proposed. 
"We're pleasantly surprised with the individual rates we've seen so far," Kreidler said. "In many cases, people will get better benefits and pay less--especially if they qualify for subsidies."
Oregon:

Oregon's 2014 health premium filings spark relief, questions
Massive health insurance premium hikes predicted as the inevitable result of federal reforms haven't materialized in Oregon. 
The lower-than-expected preliminary rates come as much-needed good news for the Affordable Care Act. The law, passed in 2010, has been plagued by resistance in Congress and complaints of snafus as the Jan. 1 startup for expanded coverage draws closer. 
"I was surprised that there were so many competitive rates and they were somewhat lower than I expected," says Rocky King of Cover Oregon, set up to help people and small businesses shop for insurance plans and qualify for tax credits starting in October.

California:


ObamaCare plans cheaper than expected in key rate filing


New insurance policies under President Obama's healthcare law will cost significantly less than expected in California. 
The state released rate filings Thursday for the policies that will be sold through the health law's insurance exchange. Experts had been especially eager to see California's rates, and it is the first large state to release price information for next year. 
The average plan will carry a monthly premium of $300, regulators said. Most people will receive a subsidy to help cover part of that cost, and cheaper options are also available. 
The Congressional Budget Office predicted in 2009 that premiums for a middle-of-the-road exchange plan would come to about $5,200 per year. 
Other states have seen their rates track relatively close to that figure, but California's plans came in substantially lower — about $3,600 per year before subsidies.

Colorado's premiums (released yesterday) don't seem to have gotten enough analysis yet to allow a comparison--reportedly they're all over the map, as there are going to be over 800 plans for sale next year.

Division of Insurance Reviewing Hundreds of New Health Insurance Plans
Denver – The Colorado Division of Insurance is reviewing hundreds of proposed new health insurance plans designed to offer coverage to consumers and small businesses starting January 1, 2014. The new plans must meet certain federal requirements for benefits and premiums, as outlined in the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This includes health plans sold through Connect for Health Colorado, the state’s new health insurance marketplace. It opens on October 1, 2013, offering plans that begin in 2014.    
Health insurance carriers had until May 15 to submit their plans for review. A total of 17 carriers submitted a combined total of 813 health plans for the individual and small group markets. These will be sold through Connect for Health Colorado, as well as outside of the new marketplace. 
“We are very encouraged by the number of health insurance carriers that want to participate in Colorado,” said DOI Commissioner Jim Riesberg. “As the regulatory agency charged with ensuring a competitive marketplace for health insurance companies in Colorado, we believe that a greater number of carriers means more choice for Colorado consumers.”

I'm beginning to suspect that someone in GOP headquarters has badly mismanaged the expectations game.